DYN Blog: Defensive Shield vs Offensive Weapon & French Mistral

While the US tries to “reset” relations with Russia, Kremlin directs its policy to develop offensive weapon, maintain balance of power and gain control over the post Soviet countries, predominantly over Georgia, Ukraine and the Caspian Sea countries.

Russia uses all kind of tools starting from energy supplying ending by demonstrating its nuclear potential. Moscow perceived as step back a constructive policy of the Obama Administration and demanded more after shelving installation of the US defensive shield in Poland and Czech Republic. Kremlin also worries about possible sea-based defensive system and reiterates to develop offensive weapons system to preserve the balance and response the US missile systems as well. “To preserve the balance, we must develop offensive weapons systems, not missile defense systems as the US is doing,” the Russian PM said on December 29, 2009.

For mutual understanding there are preconditions which are part of big political bargain. The US wants to get Russian support in fighting against Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan; dealing with nuclear security; solving tension with Iran over nuclear enrichment. In change for these, Russia wants to be recognized its right over “zones of influence” and to monopolize energy projects.

Russia’s 2008 foray into Georgia showed fragility of the global peace and a real face of Russia. In 2008 Russia couldn’t reach its goal, which aimed to retune Georgia inside its orbit, then to lock the South Caucasus and gain monopoly over the Caspian oil and gas. But in spite of it, Russia partially achieved some results: Russia seriously damaged Georgian economy and its military capability, undermined NATO integration perspectives, recognized independence of breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia, legalized its military existence in occupied territories, woke up fear and reminded Europe about its imperialistic feeling.

On December 22, 2009 Unites States Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations released a report “Striking the Balance: US Policy and Stability in Georgia”. It calls the US administration to activate its policy and explains necessity of replenishing Georgia’s military potential, which as a result of Russian diplomatic pressure has been restricted to get military articles from other states.

The report states “Failing a coordinated, NATO-led strategy for security assistance in the region, allies run the risk of distributing an already fragile political balance and engendering an excessive nationalization of Georgian defense policy. In the long-term, a continuation of the status quo appears to ensure that Georgia will not have difficulty providing for its own territorial defense needs but remain susceptible to the international strife and external manipulation that often accompany such national insecurity”.

The report emphasized attempt of some NATO allies pursuing significant military deals with Russia that could upset the military balance in Europe. It concerns to Russian-France deal over selling Mistral-class French warship to Russia, which caused fear and dissatisfaction through neighboring NATO member states and in Georgia as well. Nobody can give guarantee for what purposes Russia will use the strategic warship in future, but according Kremlin statement, Russia wants to increase its military capacity and to have modern operative fleet. “The head of the Russian navy has said that a Mistral-class vessel could put as many troops in Georgia in 40 minutes as the Russian Black Sea Fleet took 26 hours to land during the nations’ August 2008 war”.

By the way Russia closely observes and pays big attention to approaching Ukrainian Presidential Election, which will take place on January 17, 2010. Russia has a big chance to be elected a pro-Russian presidential candidate, who will follow Kremlin political course and shift “Iron Curtain” on the Polish-Ukrainian border. Loss of Ukraine will become very vulnerable for the rest post-Soviet republics, especially for Georgia, as it will encourage Russia to prepare the second wave of confrontation aiming fully to gain control on other post-Soviet republics.